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Business News - May 2025

This month (May 2025) we have updates on the following topics:

  • General economic outlook - Inflation and Tariffs
  • East Midlands Business Environment
  • Challenges Faced by Businesses
  • Skills in demand in our region
  • Labour markets

General Economic Outlook - Inflation and Tariffs:

  • In March growth forecasts for the UK economy were downgraded from their previously predicted levels by the EY Item Club and the International Monetary Fund (IMF).
  • EY downgraded their forecast for predicted growth from 1.0 percent to 0.8 percent in 2025 and from 1.6 percent to 0.9 percent in 2026. The changes were a result of the trade disruption and uncertainty that has been caused as a result of the US trade tariffs.
  • This view was also held by the IMF who reduced their predicted growth for the UK from 1.6 percent to 1.1 percent in 2025.
  • The Tariffs effecting the UK means that there will now be an additional 10 percent baseline tax on all imports from the UK as well as an additional 25 percent tax on all aluminium, steel and cars.
  • In March there was a fall in the rate of inflation for the second month in a row. The rate in the UK fell to 2.6 percent from 2.8 percent the month before. This pushed inflation closer to the 2 percent target set by the Bank of England. This fall was driven by drops in the price of petrol and in the price of recreation and culture such as toys, games and hobbies.
  • However, despite the drop, it is seen as likely that the rate will rise again in May, with some analysts believing it may rise to 3 percent. This view is being driven by the increase in bills in April, the rise of council tax, and the effect of the rise to employers National Insurance working its way through the economy.
  • website: UK growth forecast cut over tariff uncertainty - BBC
  • website: UK inflation falls as price of petrol drops - BBC
  • website: UK inflation rate has fallen, here's why it wont last long - BBC

East Midlands Business Environment  

  • Business Activity in the East Midlands continued to fall through into March, although this was at a slower rate than in February. The latest data signalled a much slower contraction in output at East Midlands firms compared to the four-year highs in February. However, the decline in activity was still different from the UK trend which saw a small expansion in output
  • Sebastian Burnside, Chief Economist at NatWest said that:
    “Firms up and down the country are looking to control costs which is feeding through to staffing decisions. Price pressures remain high across the board, though they did at least subside slightly in most areas in March, on the eve of the changes to national insurance contributions and national minimum and living wages”
  • website: UK Regional Growth Tracker Report for March 2025 - NatWest

Main Business Concerns:

According to the Business Insights and Impacts Survey, ran by ONS, 74.6 percent of respondent businesses expressed a concern for their business.

The top 5 concerns raised were:

Skills most in demand in our region from November 2024 to January 2025 were:

  1. Warehousing
  2. Auditing
  3. Continuous improvement process
  4. Machinery Skills
  5. Mental Health

Labour markets:

Ashfield's March 2025 figures show that we had 4.1 percent or 3,070 people of working age as claimants. This is a marginal increase from February 2025, which had 3,010 people in Ashfield as claimants. While this rate is higher than the East Midlands average of 3.8 percent it is lower than the UK average of 4.2 percent.

More Economic data for Ashfield District can be found on the NOMIS website:

Last updated: 21 February 2025